- The EUR/USD initially fell during the trading session on Thursday but turned around to show signs of life again.
- This is another attempt to recover from the oversold condition, but at the end of the day we are still very much in a downtrend, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
- I look at this rally is something that is necessary, and I’m looking forward to shorting this market at a higher level.
The $1.00 level under normal circumstances would of course attract a lot of attention, but we have been there and done that. The 50-Day EMA probably offers a significant amount of resistance as well, so while that area may cause some headlines, it will not have the impact that we have seen multiple times in the past. I think that any signs of exhaustion are to be jumped on, as it would be a continuation of the downtrend. The European Union has no reason to go higher in value, therefore think the currency will continue to get pounded. No market moves in one direction forever, so it does make sense that we get this bounce.
Interest Rate Differentials Likely to Hurt the Euro
I do like the US dollar going forward, and I do think that it’s only a matter of time before we see traders try to take advantage of “cheap greenbacks.” The market breaking above the 50-Day EMA would of course be a very bullish sign, but I think that the 1.05 level above needs to be broken clearly to send this market much higher. That would not only be a big move but would also have the Euro breaking above the 200-Day EMA.
The Euro will continue to suffer an interest rate differential, and of course, you should keep in mind that the European economy is going to be crushed this winter, as the lack of energy will obviously slow down the economy. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve is showing no signs of slowing down its monetary tightening policy, so at this point, I think this is still a “one-way trade”, and traders are simply taking a bit of profit heading toward the weekend. By early next week, I anticipate that I will get a signal to start shorting, and I will take advantage of it. I have no interest in buying anytime soon.